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The Great Recession is OVER!

And HAS been, for WAY over a year….

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is an independent group of economists, today declared that the Great Recession, which started in December 2007, ended in June 2009.

:-)

Maybe for large corporations…. I don’t think that most small businesses and individuals have noticed!

Don’t you feel better already? I know that I don’t! The 81% of Americans polled who say that the American economy is in “poor” shape, or the increasing percentage of Americans (now up to 44%) who say that the ecomomy is in “very poor” shape, probably don’t EITHER!

The latter article notes that, in the results of a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, more people blame the Republicans than the Democrats for the country’s economic problems (well, at least people have figured THAT part out):

“According to the survey, more Americans hold the Republicans responsible than the Democrats, with 44% blaming the GOP and 35% picking the Democrats.”

“And when George W. Bush’s name is added to the mix, the number who blame the Republicans rises to 53%, with just a third saying that Barack Obama and his party are at fault.”

In the NBER statement, “the committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.” NBER decided this, as opposed to the possibility (now at 20-40% probability) of a so-called “double-dip” recession.

With all due respect, “Who cares?” :-)

I guess that I lack patience with a group of theoreticians who still have jobs (I am an experimentalist), when the unemployment rate of California held at 12.3% in July (Note added October 2, 2010: … and ROSE to 12.4% in August!) and U.S. unemployment INCREASED to 9.6% in August!

I have to disagree with the video in the CNNMoney article that favors continued tax cuts for the WEALTHIEST 2% of American (who make up 14% of spending – I guess it’s EASY to do that when your basic needs are already covered), and that blames delays in the economic recovery on politics. Of course, the people interviewed in the video, at banks and investment firms, depend upon investments by the wealthy for their very living, or else THEY could join the ranks of the unemployed.

The facts show that the economic recovery has been stalled by BUSINESS (not politics) spending its glut of profit overseas in ways that hurt domestic productivity, rather than by hiring workers. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of economic activity.

Although the gross domestic product (GDP) has recovered to about 70% of its pre-recession level, according to Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute and an expert in the dating of recessions, in PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT (emphasis mine), only 9% of jobs have come back.

The economy will not rebound until people are employed.

“Finger pointing” by Big Business, at politicians, is not very convincing (politicians don’t HIRE many people) in view of the numbers above. But remember, executive ranks are filled overwhelmingly (>90%) with Myers-Briggs “thinking-judging” individuals who have a tough time accepting responsibility for their own actions and often need to find a scapegoat… somewhere.

-Bill at

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