Cheshire Cat Photo Blog(...said the Cat: 'we're all mad here....')

I noted with a lot of interest a news report last night that the population of the U.S. is currently “not replacing itself.” That is, with the current birth rate, the population of the U.S. will decrease. (Those of you who think this would be a GOOD thing are not thinking about TAXES.)

Today, CNN noted that the number of babies born in the United States last year dropped 2.6% to 13.5 births per every 1,000 people, from 13.9 births in 2008 and 14.3 births in 2007.

Way back in November of 2007, I wrote a blog entry entitled, “A few words about demographics,” that discussed the retirement of the “Baby Boomer,” the large increase in people who will be collecting Social Security (“… by 2030, Social Security’s caseload will be 84 million people [up from 50 million today] and Medicare will go from 44 million current beneficiaries to 79 million…), and that in 2030, according to the article I cited, “…there will barely be more than two workers paying payroll taxes for every retiree.”

Well, that was BEFORE we knew about falling birth rates! Looks like there may be FEWER than two workers supporting each retiree, especially when offshoring and layoffs of workers in their 50s and late 40s are considered. Imagine their PAYROLL taxes! (And OTHER taxes….)

(Note added September 3, 2010: Just in case there was ever any doubt about the personal GREED of corporate executives being a prime motivator is many of the layoffs during the recession, CNN cites THIS report:

“According to the report ‘CEO Pay and the Great Recession,’ chief executive officers of the 50 firms that laid off the most workers since the start of the economic crisis earned nearly $12 million on average in 2009. That’s 42 percent more than the average pay of CEOs at S&P 500 firms as a whole.”

(Note added October 3, 2010: We have seen this kind of thing before. However, a guillotine on the 50-yard line of Monday Night Football would be a novelty in the U.S., even though something similar was suggested (humorously?) by George Carlin.)

I just found the reference to a report that I read within the last couple of days that shows business “dumping” most of the increased costs of health insurance to employees, and not picking up their “fair share.” Imagine that! SOME major companies [guess which ones?] considered “a course that was heretofore unthinkable, dumping the health care coverage they provide to their workers in exchange for paying penalty fees to the government.” )

Business, for its part, has been PROLONGING the recession (the percentages of unemployed in both the U.S. [9.5%] and in California [12.3%] have not changed in the last two months) by using accumulated cash to purchase foreign goods and services instead of hiring American workers. (Note added September 3, 2010: By Hanlon’s razor, I am no longer convinced that “stupidity” can explain the observations, and I suspect “malice.”)

The CNN article about birth rate cites Andrew Cherlin, a sociology professor at Johns Hopkins University:

“The birth rate is falling because of the Great Recession. When people are unsure of their financial future, they tend to postpone having children,” Cherlin told CNN.

“It’s stronger now than in the last couple of recessions because this is a stronger recession,” he added.

Cherlin noted that some of the women postponing having children now will have them later, and some never will. Cherlin predicts that the U.S. will experience, again, the percentage seen in the Great Depression, in which approximately 20% of women NEVER had children.

The number of babies born in the U.S. dropped to 4,136,000 in 2009, from 4,247,000 in 2008.

So… it looks as though birth rate will combine with business ineptitude to make the coming train wreck of supporting retiring Baby Boomers much worse. (Not to mention projected labor shortages and the inability of retirees to serve as markets for goods and services….)

Business should start to worry about that train wreck… right now.

-Bill at

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