A few words about demographics…
In the middle of October 2007, a major event happened but did not receive a lot of fanfare: the first baby boomer, Kathleen Casey-Kirschling (born in Philadelphia on Jan. 1, 1946, at 12:00:01 AM) signed up for Social Security by taking early retirement at age 62.
If you think that Global Warming is a big deal (and it IS!), read the article above and learn about the 80 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964 who could qualify for Social Security and Medicare during the next 22 years. (Note added September 26, 2009: It looks like the article above has been archived. I guess that only really REALLY BIG companies and governments have the disk space to store EVERYTHING FOREVER! And that’s because WE buy it for them….) (Note added July 17, 2010: GOOD NEWS! I found the article on the USA Today site! Enjoy!)
The first 3.2 million of the baby boomers turn 62 next year, at the rate of 365/hour, according to the article. Some 49% of the men and 53% of the women are projected to take early retirement, drawing Social Security checks representing 75% of what they would receive if they had waited 4 more years. In 2011, they will turn 65 and be eligible for Medicare. In 2012, those who did not take the early benefits will turn 66 and qualify for full benefits.
Although Congress as done little, Business (with a capital “B”; and perhaps especially High Tech companies, of which California has a bunch!) has done even less, by taking short-sighted actions that will actually make the coming train wreck even worse. According to the article, by 2030, Social Security’s caseload will be 84 million people (up from 50 million today) and Medicare will go from 44 million current beneficiaries to 79 million.
In 2030, according to the article, there will barely be more than two workers paying payroll taxes for every retiree. I do not envy them.
As for me, I am in the “early adopter” (not the bleeding edge) portion of the baby boomers distribution, and I cannot wait to see what happens. There are enough people in the group of baby boomers to vote as a block (in their own self-interest) against politicians who would take actions detrimental to the boomers, and win. 
Since baby boomers are not known, as a group, for their quiet subservience, I can envision scenes in Washington, D.C. that could make the Vietnam War protests look like a “walk in the park,” since the protest would be economic and much more unified. I can imagine the media attention that police action against a large group of senior citizens would bring.
The politicians have put together a road show. Business “leaders” of the linear-thinking kind (you know, the kind who ask “What’s the next step?” when there are an infinity of possible next steps) have trouble seeing beyond the end of the current quarter, let alone into 2008, or 2030. Offshoring is coming up short in “the usual places” and new places, like Central America, are being tapped for programming and other information systems resources. Some places with a large, inexpensive labor pool do not have a good record for observance of international law (especially intellectual property law), and have a worse record for human rights. These places are not an especially good risk for offshoring intellectual property, and let’s not forget the unforgiving baby boomers who are alienated by the companies who offshore.
Well, the folks who will read the article are not the folks who need to, and the folks who need to will not read the article, because they already have all the answers (short-term, of course) inside their own heads.
I can’t wait to watch and participate in the unfolding drama!
-Bill at Cheshire Cat Photo
