Whatta “Co-inky-dink!” :-)
I have said a few times that I tend not to believe in coincidence, especially when humans are involved.
And it may be “just me,” but when I hear pronouncements from telecommunications companies, I usually start from a position of BELIEVING NOTHING AT ALL…. 
Yesterday, at an investor conference in New York, AT&T’s head of wireless, Ralph de la Vega, said that the wireless operator is considering “incentives” to get consumers to reduce their data usage, according to CNET. CNET (which has a graphic of the AT&T logo “sitting” on [or is it “rolling over?] a map of the United States – perhaps because the “Death Star” logo parody had already been used ) reports that de la Vega said 3% of smartphone users are consuming 40% of the network capacity. Then, CNET quoted de la Vega as saying:
“What’s driving usage on the network and driving these high usage situations are things like video, or audio that keeps playing around the clock,” he said, according to the transcript provided to CNET by AT&T. “And so we’ve got to get to those customers and have them recognize that they need to change their pattern, or there will be other things that they are going to have to do to reduce their usage.”
(Note added December 12, 2009: Oooooooooooooh! )
CNET, quoting from a transcript of the meeting, said:
(Note added December 12, 2009: Oooooooooooooh, again! Sounds a “little menacing” to me, but it is difficult to derive emotional content from printed words – that’s why emoticons [“smilies”] were invented!)
Awhile ago, CNET quoted Forrester Research analyst , Charles Golvin:
WHAT A “COINCIDENCE!” (Sorry to “shout…”) I mentioned at the time (October) that, “This could mean BIGGER cell bills for YOU! Not to mention, for all of the wireless gadgets that you don’t already own but may buy…!”
All of this rhetoric occurs against a background of reports that AT&T has not planned adequately for new customer usage patterns, which might explain the inability of AT&T networks to support tethering on iPhone and might explain other problems reported by AT&T smartphone users. Heck, back in October, AT&T CTO, John Donovan, while acknowledging his awareness of “what is being said in the press, in blogs, and on Twitter,” would not admit that there was even a problem with AT&T’s network. Then, in an article dated December 9, 2009, Ralph de la Vega admitted that Manhattan and San Francisco “are performing at levels below our standards.” (Note added December 13, 2009: And on the evening of December 11, two days after Ralph de la Vega’s address, performance in San Francisco was WAY below standards! ) Remember, it MIGHT not be a “COINCIDENCE” that Scott Adams (who has an MBA from the University of California, Berkeley and lives in the next town to the west of me) initially based his comic strip “Dilbert” on his experiences while working at Pacific Bell, one of the precursors of “the new AT&T.”
OK, please bear with me as I think this through….
- Mr. de la Vega said that 3% of the smartphone users are consuming 40% of the network capacity. I assume that he means “residual capacity” after the undoubtedly bandwidth-sucking network traffic with the NSA at such places as Folsom Street in San Francisco. Hey! Maybe that’s why their network performance is substandard in Manhattan and San Francisco, especially in financial districts! (Note added December 12, 2009: It must be VERY “network-traffic intensive” to gather all of the communications of those financial smartphone users!) (Don’t get me wrong – I don’t believe that AT&T is alone with regard to these interactions; I believe that ALL of the carriers have them.)
- AT&T appears not to have planned the modernization of its network to keep pace with growing customer demand. Wow! Video and audio over networks! Never saw THAT coming! (What have hard drive capacities done year over year? What have the speeds of network connections for users done year over year?) Perhaps this is why I initially signed up for high-speed Internet with Comcast (back in my Netscape days; yes, I still use cable, because technology BEATS marketing) when AT&T’s precursor did not even OFFER high-speed Internet in my neighborhood until YEARS later! Perhaps this is why AT&T CTO John Donovan announced in October that “There have been big changes in usage, which has <sic> forced us to throw our traditional planning models out the window.” (Note added December 12, 2009: I am willing to bet that, although the “traditional planning models” were thrown “out the window,” the traditional PLANNERS and THEIR MANAGEMENT were NOT! Many companies suffer from the failure to recognize the sources of their problems, especially when the sources of the problems may be the people who are doing the thinking.)
- AT&T plans to create “incentives” (don’t you just love “business speak?” ) for the 3% of its users who appear to be bandwidth hogs, to reduce their usage. Will these be TRUE “incentives” (e.g., payment of money to the heavy users to stop using so heavily, reduction in the AT&T bills of heavy users that cut back…?) or will they be punitive measures such as increasing the AT&T bills of heavy users who refuse to cut back? What are the odds that users will “roll back” their usage patterns? The clock moves only FORWARD, not BACKWARD.
- Let’s speculate, just for a moment, that AT&T might consider raising the AT&T bills of users who refuse to cut back…. If users cut back, AT&T might “buy a little time” to modernize its network, while reaping a bigger profit from the users who do NOT cut back! Then, with an upgraded network, AT&T would be in an excellent position to charge those higher rates (when was the last time that you recall higher rates being VOLUNTARILY rolled back?) to ALL of the users who will now be able to increase their video, audio, etc. usage on the upgraded network. Hey! This is what the Forrester Research gentleman above said about “the vision for the future is to use data revenue to make up for the shortfall and to kick ARPU (average revenue per user) into growth mode.”
Whatta Co-inky-dink!
In a separate CNET interview with Jim Cicconi, senior executive vice president of external and legislative affairs for AT&T, yesterday, Mr. Cicconi said that something needs to be done to deal with the flood of wireless-data traffic. CNET quotes Cicconi from the interview at his office in Washington, D.C.: “Wireless-data usage is growing far faster than anyone had expected. And if we don’t do something soon, we will run out very fast. And then we will have to start telling wireless customers that they can’t do all the things they want to do with their devices.”
(Note added December 15, 2009: Personally, I find the language used and words chosen by AT&T executives INSTRUCTIVE. The language seems to reflect a desire to dictate to AT&T customers what to do with their (expensive) devices while providing “incentives” to use less of their (expensive, and perhaps more expensive for data, soon!) connectivity and services. At the same time, there seems to be a sort of “how could we have possibly known?” attitude. You can learn more about the history of the company (companies, depending upon how you think about wholly-owned subsidiaries) and attitude here, here, and here.)
(Note added December 23, 2009: CNET reported yesterday about a team-building exercise that Mr. Cicconi conducted:
“For two days, 15 senior AT&T managers stood on the very spot where more than 50,000 men had died during one of the greatest battles in the Civil War, and they listened to a former West Point history professor dissect the three-day battle, paying particular attention to the decisions made by the Confederate and Union generals.”
What a memorable, persuasive, and EXPENSIVE way to get a point across (that choosing your position on a battlefield is very important)! Most of us could grasp that after reading a book. My own personal tour of the battlefield at Gettysburg (as a boy), and the lessons that I learned, were at my PARENTS’ expense. CNET continues:
“While a “field trip” to Gettysburg may seem like a strange choice for a corporate team-building exercise, it is precisely the type of outing that Cicconi finds valuable. Cicconi, who has served in the White House under two U.S. presidents, is a huge history buff.”
How much do 15 senior AT&T managers EARN IN TWO DAYS [nevermind the travel and lodging expenses]? Oh, I am sure that the lessons learned will EASILY pay for themselves! Want to bet that the lessons pay for themselves at OUR expense? 😉 )
I don’t know if wireless-data usage is growing far faster than “anyone” at AT&T had expected, but it is NOT growing “far faster” than I had expected.
I think that the rapid growth was predicted by many of YOU, as well. (Note added December 12, 2009: And WE are not even in the carrier business, most of us…. )
-Bill at
Cheshire Cat Photo™ – “Your Guide to California’s Wonderland™”
You can view higher-resolution photos (*generally* 7-30 megabytes, compressed) at the Cheshire Cat Photo™ Pro Gallery on Shutterfly™, where you can also order prints and gifts decorated with the photos of your choice from the gallery. Apparel and other gifts decorated with some of our most popular photos can be ordered from the Cheshire Cat Photo™ Store on CafePress®. Both Shutterfly™ and CafePress® ship to most international locations worldwide!Framed prints and prints on canvas can be ordered from our galleries on imagekind® and redbubble®. If you don’t see what you want or would like to receive an email when new photos are up on the site, send us an email at info@cheshirecatphoto.com.
