iPad and the Third Law…
… of Arthur C. Clarke, a very great man who passed away about two weeks before my father, in 2008…
“3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”
Is the iPad sufficiently advanced? The answer seems to be, “We shall see.”
Apple says of iPad: “Our most advanced technology in a magical and revolutionary device at an unbelievable price.”
(It is good to see that they read Arthur C. Clarke.)
(Note added January 31, 2010: Actually, in reading many articles abouit iPad, it was surprising to me that NO other articles that I have read thus far have commented upon the subtle Arthur C. Clarke reference between “advanced technology” and “magical” in the Apple statement. Maybe they just thought it was obvious, or maybe not. 
Maybe there will be some Arthur C. Clarke in iBooks for today’s cyberjournalists….)
I am cautious in the evaluation of new technology. I probably would not mind being “bleeding edge,” but I never was paid well enough to afford that label. At this early point, I have watched the “iPad video,” but have not even had time to watch the Keynote, my usual “jumping off place.”
Of course, many of you have been watching and listening to all of the “pre-game speculation” for months (years? ). I resisted the pre-game hype this time. I am naturally a person who exists in “the near future,” but I have learned to distinguish “What if?” from “What is.” I tend to be a pretty brutal realist. I waited until the release, and I will take a hard look at “what is.”
When I was based at Apple for one year as a Netscape employee, assisting with the release of Mac.com->.Mac->MobileMe (especially its IMAP mail), I witnessed the obsession of some very technical customers of Apple with Apple’s new products. Obsession leads to madness, if it is not a type of madness, itself. That year saw one of Apple’s greatest achievements, the release of MacOS X, and one of its great failures, the “Cube,” which later achieved great success in its reincarnation, the repackaged “Snowball” iMac G4.
With iPad, I knew that Apple would not “cannibalize” its very successful iPhone sales, at least not yet. I have not read details of the carrier(s) involved, or whether a “voice-over-IP” app (or any other voice app) will be available for iPad. (Note added January 28,2010: For example, something like this video VoIP [“Voice over IP”] for iPhone….) It would seem, from my early glimpse, that “voice” is one of the few things missing from a potentially “universal” device.
(Note added January 30, 2010: According to an article in the LA Times, Apple Inc. confirmed on the night of January 28 that it is allowing iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch developers to build apps that can make Internet calls over a 3G cellular network:
The LA Times reported January 28 that several apps have been approved for VoIP on iPhone, including iCall and the previously mentioned Fring. Skype has an app “waiting in the wings” for a final clarification of an SDK terms of service. Once clarified, Skype will submit its app for approval. What can I say but “Wooooooo Hooooooo?!!” Now to get that Web cam in the iPad and REALLY crash some networks…! )
Fortunately, several of my friends can afford the label “bleeding edge” and are what I affectionately call “Gadget Geeks.” Others, who work for Apple, have access to hardware for “free or cheap.” Some of these folks, who retain the word “engineer” in their titles, will put the iPad through rigorous testing in the course of their jobs. In addition, I will follow my usual path of watching the Keynote and then reading the technical specifications.
As I move toward the expiration of my cell service contract, in March, I will be paying close attention to carrier choices, unlimited voice/data plan prices, and iPad on 3G, as well as iPhone developments.
As a long-time lover of Apple products, I will reach my own conclusions about “sufficiently advanced technology,” as, I am sure, you will, too.
(Note added January 28, 2010: I took the opportunity this morning to watch the Keynote address of Steve Jobs. In addition to watching an amazing product ecosystem, I noted subtle changes in the delivery styles of Apple’s other executives to present a uniform delivery style with Steve’s. I don’t think that I am imagining this. I really like the style. [For some, it comes naturally; for others, it can be learned, with varying degrees of authenticity and sincerity achieved.] I still have not read the technical specifications of iPad, and I have not pursued the obvious New York Times connection. According to a recent CNET article, The New York Times is reportedly getting ready to charge readers for access to its online content.
The iPad appears very much to me to be evolving into “the laptop of the future,” ideal for those who do not need a physical keyboard all of the time (most of us). The device would be an ideal videoconferencing platform, except for the lack of a camera and voice telephony over 3G [and perhaps the “crushing” effect on the networks of the carrier(s)]. The more I think about it, the more convinced I am that the omission of a camera from the iPad is actually related to the likely effect on AT&T (and others?) network traffic, rather than the cost or space of including a camera. If a camera were included, the obvious question, “Why not videoconferencing…?” would arise. AT&T announced today that its profits are up 25% on the growth of its wireless services. (Note added March 7, 2010: Google Fiber for Communities may be a game changer with regard to network use and speed. Google plans to introduce Internet service that is greater than 100 times FASTER than exists for most American customers, in a pilot project involving 50,000 to 500,000 customers. A number of telecommunications companies seem “happy” to rake in profits on the “status quo” and seem to respond only to competition from other, unimaginative telecommunications companies. Competition by an IMAGINATVE company like Google could really shake up the game.)
Apple needs to drag the “majority” [and the performance of carrier networks] slowly into the future, of course, while not cannibalizing the sales of its existing products…. With more “traditional” companies, like AT&T and The New York Times, that could be fun to watch! )
(Note added later on January 28, 2010: To me, the performance of Apple’s stock after the iPad introduction shows all the earmarks of investors “stumbling around” trying to make sense of “game-changing” technology. Tech writers ALSO seem split, which to me suggests that a new game is afoot! “We fear change!” – Garth Algar [Dana Carvey], “Wayne’s World” ) (Note added January 30, 2010: It looks from the VoIP apps that a new game REALLY IS afoot! The next weeks and months should be FUN!)
(Note added February 6, 2010: Well, it looks like the FCC (Federal Communications Commission agreed with me today that, even without a Web cam, iPad could seriously impact AT&T’s network. (“Crosstown Traffic?”) It looks to me as though Apple should add some more partners, ASAP!)
-Bill at
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